Risk dilemmas : forced choices and survival - Jablonowski, Mark, 1955- (New York : Palgrave MacMillan, 2007)
A review of high-stakes risk criteria. Formalizing risky decisions. The expected value criterion. Decision criteria when probability is unknown, or irrelevant. Conditions of indifference between fatalism and precaution. A fuzzy representation of danger -- Finding alternatives to risk. The preactionary approach. Identifying alternatives using backcasting. Backcasting under uncertainty. Backcasting versus backtracking. Maintaining the balance of life. Contrasting the'post-fact' approach. Cost/ benefit and post-fact risk management. Avoiding mechanistic precaution. Risk acceptance--risk avoidance--risk anticipation -- Risk avoidance : all or nothing. How risk grows. Why prioritization fails. Pragmatic arguments for not adding risks. Satisfying the burden of proof. A possibilistic model of catastrophic potentials. Is there a'natural' level of risk. On the notion of'selective fatalism.' Selective fatalism and dilemmas. The'tolerability' compromise -- Precaution in context. The hallmarks of precaution. Context and risk acceptance criteria. The problem of valuation. Inter-contextual effects of precaution. Alternatives assessment across contexts. The need for coordinated goals. A reassessment of risk assesssment. Using risk assessments the right way. Identifying high-stakes risks and their mechanisms. Decision theoretic models. Integrating fuzzy risk thresholds -- Can we avoid risk dilemmas? The only two options. Facing the paradox of progress. Risk dilemmas and self-interest. The prospect of'infinite disutility.' The need for a wider approach to science. Radical rethinking. Science to the rescue? The dangers of giving up -- Summary and conclusion (of sorts). Understanding high-stakes decision processes. Making precaution work. How do current regimes compare? Doing the right thing. Who will lead the way?.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Keywords: Risk management; Emergency management